3G - the telecommunications industry the biggest mistake in history

 Several years ago, observers reproduced an article written in it is wonderful ah
3Gmm the history of the telecommunications industry the biggest mistake
bystander
see the title, I believe almost everyone will feel weird: the current The only problem is that people consider when issued 3G licenses? what standard licenses issued? issued several licenses? and so on, it seems that 3G itself is no doubt that the only question is how to achieve it. But the fact is, 3G Not only is there a big problem in itself, and these problems are almost obvious, but, because the special traditional communication technologies, business models greatly hindered the political people to realize that would have a very simple truth.
1, going through old dreams
traditional telecom network is completely single-core phone business. the last century put forward the concept of the 60s ISDN is the first effort to try to break this situation. ISDN is intended to (Integrated Services Digital Network). The following four ISDN ISDN switch means can be summed up the whole development process.
70 years of ISDN: I Smell Dollar Now, (I smell the smell of the dollar). was originally placed on the ISDN very great hope that it will conduct all business telecommunications industry will bring tremendous benefits, basically the same, people think that 3G will also bring huge benefits to telecom industry;
80 years of ISDN: It Still Do Nothing, (which now do not do anything). a what can be done The final result is that the network does not know what to do, people had the same hope that ISDN can overcome the limitations of a single voice services, the ability to expand into video and data fields. Today, on the fantasy in the 3G business in ISDN development, they also have similar fantasies;
90 age ISDN: Internet Stimulates Daffy Needs, (crazy up the Internet to stimulate demand). Contrary to popular belief, ISDN really be useful because the development of telephone lines to 56K MODEM reached after physical limits, and one line of ISDN BRI 128K 56K 的 MODEM than double the rate a little high. ISDN applications is to provide an Internet access for ISDN, this is the result of a sad but also happy. Although in the whole ISDN network of business, due to the development of ISDN video conferencing there are some applications, but far from the point of a large scale;
21 century ISDN: It Starts Drop Narrow, (it starts falling into the narrow space for development) . because the actual access to applications primarily ISDN Internet access, and then large numbers of various broadband access technologies: XDSL, CABALE MODEM, LAN, etc., ISDN, after a very short soon after the rapid development tends to decline.
because that 2M ISDN access bandwidth of the largest not sufficient to achieve high-quality video services, it made 90 ATM-broadband integrated services digital network ideas. The basic access bandwidth of 155M.
ATM's situation slightly better than ISDN. ATM was first introduced, people thought it was the best man, and even the ultimate communications network technology. However, the initial access to the practical application of ATM is not operational sense in the field of telecommunications, but in the LAN areas. In more than 100M LAN has not yet appeared before, ATM LAN can be achieved higher than the rate of 10M, only advantage is that it needs in place high-speed LAN access to the application. But then, 100M Fast Ethernet network, Gigabit Network Gigabit as well as the current one after another came out, completely out of the ATM out of the LAN area. Fortunately, the field of ATM in the LAN access, after a brief chance of survival, just as in the telecommunications network of high-quality bearing some applications. but as ATM access to specific business rarely practical. It's the B-ISDN signaling system was almost completely abandoned. today except the 53-byte ATM cell outside, has been melting into the technology as part of IP bearer network.
either ISDN or ATM, as the telecommunications network integrated services digital network eventually becoming an unattainable dream, their efforts left us only the number of transitional technology only.
Today, when the 3G and the original ISDN is still the same standard, when the endless sound the same again suggested that a 3G-2M access rate sufficient to achieve a lot of high-quality video services, it proposed the concept of 4G .4 G's access rates up to 100M, with the original ATM rate very close to the proposed access.
how all this is similar to: 3G in the mobile space, but want to relive the dreams of fixed-line ISDN, while the 4G but ATM is to repeat history. Despite no mention of , just that 3G is ISDN and ATM end and a far cry from the original idea, but people really have a clear summary of where the root cause? If not, how can it ensure that the next time will not repeat the same mistakes?
break when a single telecommunications network limited voice services, from analog to digital, many basic ideas have changed the network, and telecommunications industry is still immersed in the concept of a telecommunications network in the past.
When the telecommunications network to carry the voice of business after a single break , will have to carry a wide variety of business, for this we do not have any objection, the fundamental difference between the kinds of businesses is not In the past hundred years on, telecommunications is not only a single network carrying voice traffic, and almost all business properties in both the 4K fixed voice services. However, when access to a variety of business telecommunications network load, the only are many kinds of business, and more importantly, almost all of the features are in the business indefinitely, and which is difficult to predict changes.
, for example, first put forward the basic access rate of ATM 155M this magnitude, is Taking into account to host high-quality video services. However, due to compression technology, the original need tens of megabytes of high-definition digital television bit-rate video signals, and now as long as the bandwidth of 2M on it. operational characteristics of the formats are in constant development changes, while achieving the business the way they are evolving. whether video or audio format and bit rate are in the development of endless changing: G.711, G.722, G.728, G .729, G.723, AC3, MP3, MP4, H.261, H.262, H.263, H.264, MPEG1, MPEG2, MPEG4, MPEG7, MPEG21, VCD, DVD, SVCD, EVD, REAL, MS The MEDIA, FLASHhh. had proposed integrated services digital network can be thought of today, where when the MMS, instant messaging, and so the concrete realization of the business features of it? ATM can only be classified nature of the definition of the business, and this abstract classifier operational definition of meaning for the implementation of specific operations is empty, and the last is not that same thing may be entirely.
Therefore, the future needs of telecommunications networks carrying the do not know what way to achieve specific business operations, characteristics and mode of operation to develop appropriate signaling. signaling telecommunications network is the cornerstone of the past while signaling system is of considerable rigidity. a new signaling system meant to transform the whole network, and only to possess the whole network signaling protocol to achieve interoperability, and if there is the original online signaling, but also through different signaling systems to convert the signaling gateway. Therefore, signaling system protocol development, construction, upgrade and so on are a very time-consuming and cost, and what the system must be very stringent.
Even worse, we have to wait for the entire business and network protocol standards developed all clear after the network equipment in order to consider development and network building, business development issues.
not only signaling system, and the original network and the entire structure of telecommunications networks are based on the characteristics of specific business decisions and achieve way.
However, when To carry the basic characteristics of business and business implementations are endless even changing all the time being, how to implement the signaling systems and telecommunications networks, network? If this problem is not clear, it will always be in the telecommunications industry tinkering almost state: a network formulation of standards and protocols have not finished, it envisaged the business has been eliminated.
At the same time, due to the rapid progress of digital technology, the cost of various services to achieve orders of magnitude rapid decrease. This reduces the rate of decline in 9 months is double the speed. If operators can not quickly recover the investment, the huge investment will soon be spoiled.
a result, operators will increasingly dare to the idea of the traditional telecommunications network design network to build network, because the network has not yet finished building, business properties, has been changed, the huge capital investment may have been destroyed and. And according to this line of thinking to upgrade and build networks very difficult.
3, the basic characteristics of future telecommunication networks and unlimited scalability m separation
order to adapt to future changes in telecommunications network characteristics such business must be in network technology and its development to take completely different from the traditional telecom the idea of the network.
traditional telecom network is the telecommunications network technology as a holistic system-wide technology design and construction. in today's ideas have been impossible to carry out any longer. Instead: Telecom Network Technology must be able to still do not know way of business features and business services. Therefore, the telecommunications network will appear more and more obvious separation characteristics. to all parts of the telecommunications network an abstract entity as a separate development, so that when the business occurs changes, only a few parts need to be changed to adapt to the new business conduct.
IP technology is that it successfully implemented the macro network and the separation of the business, which is the key to the success of IP technology. IP OVER EVERYTHING means that the existing IP protocol can run on any physical network, which makes it can easily grow on the existing network infrastructure. the future development of telecommunications technology will enable the trend to more isolated, more detailed directions development. separation is that telecommunications networks can be upgraded with an unlimited prerequisite. separation of the results of the development of telecommunications technology ideas will have a very great impact, that is, the unity of the whole network from the pursuit of technology, turning the pursuit of solving a particular problem in the very partial technology. those who can successfully telecommunications technology, are derived from solving very specific problems, it solves the problem the smaller the target, the more targeted, the greater its chance of success. On the contrary, if a telecommunications technology is to solve All telecommunications network, telecommunications network to redefine everything that it almost certainly will not have any good results. Therefore, when the emergence of a new telecommunication technologies, we should first ask the question: a part of? The key reason for the success of network is that it adapted to the characteristics of future network development, even in a traditional foundation to achieve. It is based solely on the basis of the existing voice network, just solved the voice network service signaling control. ISDN and ATM in the case of the actual access to applications, but also are based on solving very specific problems. If I had known that they are used to do this, and why did such a great time to spend on some things it is meaningless ? and can do much better than they are. XDSL fact is such that it also uses existing telephone lines, but because it is fully aware of their mission is only to complete an access function, therefore, despite the industry XDSL investment is far smaller than ISDN, but the effect is achieved far more than ISDN.DSL higher access speed than ISDN, but this is not the real key factor in its success. DSL and core switching network is irrelevant, and because It is based on IP protocol and makes it to achieve the separation of network and business, this is the crux of the problem. ISDN ISUP interconnection needs of the whole network, and DSL can be localized in any particular region began to use copper access network, and its application whether to proceed with the other regions the same protocol is completely independent of network transformation.
WLAN applications do not need a full network deployment of WLAN access, while the whole network WLAN deployments can achieve better and more roaming service areas .
Although PHS has achieved great success in China, but the industry is almost unanimous that the PHS is a backward technology, and even success in the PHS technology companies also hold this view default attitude. a success in the market certainly has its truth, not simply for some special factors to explain the role of (special policy factors, etc.). China's Little Smart PHS in Japan, although the technology is based on the transformation over However, this reform makes the technique has undergone fundamental changes. The success of China's PHS fundamental reason is that it implements the separation of access and exchange network. Thus, PHS is not a backward technology, on the contrary, it is the most advanced mobile technology system.
3G which are a part of? If this issue is not clear, 3G is a no win no doubt.
4,3 G belongs to a part of it?
3G What? 3G is a part to which they belong? to figure out something we can change a more direct question: the problem would soon clear that: 3G, but is a , 3G is to achieve a mobile ADSL. In addition we also need it to solve other problems? do not have to. and if only to resolve this problem, it is necessary to make things so complicated as the current level up 3G ? 3G even need a dedicated core network, there is the need to do?
Once we know what the 3G, 3G business is what you can actually very easily clear: it is the provision of broadband mobile Internet access services . we think that a lot of variety of rich end-services such as MMS, video streaming, and so, in fact, strictly speaking, has nothing to do with 3G, 3G is only for them to provide a broadband access channels only. as ADSL can also be easily adopted to achieve the rich video business, but strictly speaking you can not say that video streaming is the ADSL business, because ADSL is the entire technology system without considering any business of streaming media features. SDH can be All communication network carrying business, but you can not say that these businesses are the SDH business reasons is also because the technical system in the SDH did not achieve the specific characteristics of these businesses.
5, how unlimited upgrades mobile broadband evolution ?
industry hopes to unify the global 3G protocol, which is the roaming condition. able to adopt the standard course, the complete reunification of the agreement is beneficial for the exchange, but the conditions in today's technology, this idea has some outdated . The reason is:
First of all, to achieve this unity of the whole network access technology, requires all operators in all global regions building operators network using the same protocol, it will be a very long process, and the investment is huge . At the same time, due to changes in network technology development faster and faster, so in this way is very difficult to adapt to changes in network technology. exist in a variety of Internet access network technology is an inevitable trend.
review the development of mobile communications History, 1G of a technical system, 2G two and technology system, the original ITU expect to achieve global harmonization of 3G on a single technology system, and the result is three technologies into 3G systems. people would not expect to achieve global harmonization of 4G single technical systems, but almost certainly is: 4G technology will occur more than four system!
the other hand, due to the continuous improvement of chip integration, the receiving terminal at the same time integration of multiple access protocols become a reality, and With the integration of the continuous improvement of the access agreement can integrated capacity is growing. At present, compatible with GSM and CDMA1X can phone chip (GSM1X) experiment has been successful commercially, can be commercially launched on the market is compatible with WCDMA, WLAN, etc. computer network cards and other agreements are also entering the market. can be expected: the ability of future access protocol compatible with the Moore's Law will be the period of 18 months improved several times, therefore, different wireless access protocols exist for the entire network due to roaming restrictions will become increasingly smaller. roam the terminal side to solve the problem than the solution in the access network roaming far superior side: you can easily compatible with a variety of access protocols for wireless access technology to provide a space for upgrade can be more compatible with the protocol, upgrade the greater room for development.
the same time, which can have a clear positioning, just solve the problem of mobile broadband access to mobile technology will unwittingly become very popular, for example, WPCS, SCDMA, WLAN and more. If the business is the first 3G voice, then why should the new network on this? even without considering mobile broadband data access in the opening voice services directly, it can be completely compatible with existing voice networks and other mobile end broadband network protocols to solve the problem easily, such as GSM + WLAN terminals, PCS + WLAN terminal, CDMA + WLAN terminals, etc., since it has been there so many existing voice network has been solved, why spend so much of the cost of building a new network to solve the same problem?
6, the source of error
So do these reasons the industry is not clear and hard to understand? is absolutely not the reason for this situation is caused by the traditional telecommunications industry political model of special business brought. telecommunication network of the whole network because of its unique demand characteristics, a single voice in the era of network-wide uniform protocol mode. to achieve this unified model of the mechanism is the ITU.
uniform protocol mode causing the whole network the manufacturers of equipment, a high degree of monopoly in the market and closed the market most likely. Although ITU agreement is unified, but as long as the concrete realization of the characteristics of small manufacturers will make equipment purchase online devices cause great follow-up restrictions. obviously Each manufacturer will seek to patent their agreement into the ITU, but also important: the design of the agreement more binding network module, the network will make its own proprietary technology and vendor-specific technology lock the greater the role and scope.
ITU is a commercial and political institutions, ITU's communication protocol is the world's leading communications manufacturers and operators, commercial and political compromise. This business of political compromise agreement to develop means to cause two problems : First, the agreement-making process is a global telecommunications manufacturers and operators communication technology between developed countries and even the bargaining process, it is very long and tortuous; the other hand, it has the inherent complexity and the communications protocol to enable more communication module coupled between the trend. These two properties can make the ITU system in the locking effect of the strong market, making the market for the selection of communication protocols into a factory for the life and death, especially related to communication problems. WCDMA which we can understand the China Interest Group of the reasons for the madness of planning. In this case, Under the communications industry is full of obvious fallacy is not surprising, for example:
that the TD-SCDMA and WCDMA can be complementary to the joint network, but now is simply not compatible with manufacturers to develop TD-SCDMA, WCDMA and GSM, tri-mode phones, how to use such a network?
that 3G is a huge industry, and some even give the number of 3G development in China is only 5 years, the industrial scale of a trillion there, you can make China's GDP more than one percentage point increase. Obviously, if it's such a large scale of the industry means that their investment will be astronomical. rely on business to recover the huge investment? issue is not 3G business is not clear, but our can think of all the 3G business income and can be expected to bring to the 3G investment is totally match. from the already developed a highly successful and Unicom CDMA network, we can see that the number of users Zengyi her every 3 months double the rate of growth, but the market is that it has developed too slowly. to obtain financial balance also needs at least 2 years time. this is just the only two China Mobile and China Unicom to compete, and only Unicom's CDMA technology with exclusive access to the premise. If people are envisaged by issuing 3G licenses to four or more, and for a long period of time beginning or in the main voice services, IP phone to see now on the market share growth and mobile tariff price war situation, what the result would still need further proof do?
3G in Europe suffered a setback, but that China should be launched as soon as 3G, or even to use the gun as the top in the head of the Chinese Government issued 3G licenses must be through the night, seemed to drag the next morning is worse things, like-thinking you?
If the telecommunications industry can not completely change the traditional mode of thinking, will eat more so as the European 3G bitterness.